For the first time in modern record-keeping, British Columbia’s population went down instead of up. New data show a 0.7 per cent year-over-year decline in the first quarter of 2026. That might sound like a small number, but the shift behind it is not small at all. This province had grown by roughly 1.5 per cent a year for most of the last decade, and by 2.5 per cent during the 2022-24 boom. Going from that kind of growth to outright decline in about a year is a genuine reversal, not a blip.

Economists Jock Finlayson and Ken Peacock laid out the numbers recently in Business in Vancouver, and the drivers are worth understanding if you own, farm, or are thinking about buying land in this province. The biggest factor isn’t fewer immigrants choosing B.C., though that’s part of it. It’s a sharp swing in temporary residents. During 2022-24, B.C. was gaining 20,000 to 30,000 non-permanent residents a quarter. Now it’s losing more than 20,000 a quarter. Add in weaker interprovincial migration, and the province has shed roughly 50,000 people over the past year.

For most people, this reads as a macroeconomic story about housing prices, university enrolment, and consumer spending. For farm and acreage owners in the Fraser Valley and Greater Vancouver, it’s worth translating into something more specific.

Why Farm Owners Should Pay Attention to Labour, Not Just Land Value

Farm operations in this province lean heavily on a workforce that doesn’t always show up in general population headlines: temporary foreign workers, seasonal labour, and international students who pick up farm and packing-house shifts. Finlayson and Peacock point out that B.C.’s labour force was already 0.6 per cent smaller in May than a year earlier, driven in large part by the same drop in temporary residents.

If you operate a berry farm, nursery, greenhouse, or any labour-intensive operation, this is the part of the story that actually touches your bottom line. A tighter labour pool during harvest season is a different problem than a soft housing market, and it’s one that affects the operational value of a farm, not just its real estate value. Buyers evaluating a working farm should be asking about labour arrangements and history, not assuming next season’s crew will be as easy to find as last season’s.

Why Acreage Buyers Should Pay Attention

The report also notes that housing prices and rents are falling in many parts of the province, and that foreign investor activity in real estate has “essentially evaporated” following policy and tax changes. Domestic investors are facing higher financing costs and less favourable rental economics too.

That’s a general housing market observation, but it matters for acreage buyers because it points to a smaller, more selective buyer pool overall. Fewer speculative buyers chasing land means less competition on offers, which can work in favour of a well-qualified buyer who actually intends to farm, build an estate home, or hold land long-term. It’s a different environment than the bidding-war years of 2021-24, and it rewards buyers who do their homework rather than move fast out of fear of missing out.

The Pricing Lesson for Sellers

If you’re considering selling a farm or acreage property, the population numbers are a useful reality check. The 2021-24 growth surge inflated demand across the board, including for rural and agricultural land near urban centres. That tailwind is gone, at least for the next few years — Finlayson and Peacock expect “very feeble, if any” population growth through 2026-28.

This doesn’t mean farmland has stopped being valuable. Usable acreage, water access, soil quality, and existing agricultural infrastructure haven’t changed. What has changed is the pool of buyers competing for that value. Pricing a property based on 2022 comparables, when interprovincial and international migration were both running hot, is a mistake right now. A property still needs to be priced against the buyers who are actually active today: serious farmers, long-term investors, and families planning a real transition, not speculative or urgency-driven purchasers.

A Local Perspective for the Fraser Valley

Population trends move differently by region, and the Fraser Valley has never been driven purely by the same forces as downtown Vancouver condo demand. Farm and acreage buyers in Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack, and Surrey are typically motivated by land use, lifestyle, or agricultural operation, not short-term appreciation. That said, a province-wide slowdown in population growth still touches everything from labour availability to the overall pace of rural land turnover, and it’s worth factoring into any five- or ten-year plan for a property.

The Takeaway

B.C.’s demographic reversal is real, and it’s reshaping housing, labour, and consumer demand across the province. For farm and acreage owners, the practical questions are narrower: what does this mean for finding seasonal labour, what does it mean for who’s actually in the market to buy, and what does it mean for how a property should be priced today versus two years ago.

These aren’t questions with a single easy answer, and they depend heavily on the specific property, crop, and location. Farm owners weighing a sale, and buyers trying to figure out if now is the right time, should speak with a team that understands the land and the labour, not just the housing market headlines.

If you’re considering selling a farm or acreage in the Fraser Valley, or trying to time a purchase in this changing market, Farms In BC can walk you through what your property, labour situation, and long-term position actually look like today. Contact Nav Sekhon at 604-782-0988, for a confidential farm and acreage market evaluation.